At the end of April the Koizumi regime entered its third year. Two years ago he grabbed power by winning a presidential election of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party with the catchy slogans of "destroy LDP" and "no structural reform, no economic recovery". He then stated: "Give me two or three years to deliver the fruits of reforms". So he now meets the very year the promised outcome must be shown.

So far his mandate has been measured by movie star-like popularity of the people who desire a new politics under the prolonged recession. But he has lacked real power in the parliament.

Most party seats (about 65 per cent) were grabbed by three major conservative fractions, often called "the resistance group" by Koizumi. These have pretended not to be anti-Koizumi as long as his popularity remains high. However, they have been expecting Koizumi's reform pushed to peter out some day.

In his two years in office Prime Minister Koizumi has tried to implement a presidential-style leadership by establishing many consultative committees made up of a large number of outsiders to reinforce his lack of real power.

His committees have launched a number of constructive policy packages. But when he tabled them in the parliament, opposition not only from the opposition parties but also from the ruling LDP itself stubbornly blocked his bills.

He has had to compromise heavily. Some bills passed the parliament after having their teeth pulled out. Some became law with only nominal power in terms of reform. So almost only time and budget have been spent with minimal progress.

Take some media headlines which marked the passage of Koizumi's two years: "Koizumi's stalled reform"; "A powerless feeling among members of consultative committees"; "Only words from the administration"; and "Koizumi repeatedly says 'consult with the party to decide it'".

The media called this outcome "stronger party, weaker government".

The political community is entering a phase of preparation for the coming LDP presidential election which will be held in September. In this time the key word is a "cross-party setup", which was once destroyed by Koizumi.

He now, however, desperately needs it to show his reforms are in progress. Meanwhile the old guard wants it to change the direction of the government in the other direction.

The five months until the election may be spent mostly on the electoral game with reforms, even nominal ones, set aside.
 

Era of dispersion

In a political environment in which any apparent fruit of reforms to boost the economy enough has not been seen yet, together with the deteriorating economic situation eroding people's living standards, Koizumi's popularity is falling slowly but steadily.

The general trend in the coordinated local elections held last April was a nearly complete lack of voter support for any party. The people, who can't find any hope in existing parties, want someone with a powerful leadership whatever its style.

At the election for Tokyo Metropolitan Governor, Shintaro Ishihara, an ex-LDP member, won his second term with record high support (3.08 million or 70.2 per cent of the total vote). He is a man well-known as an aggressive rightwing independent.

He also has been reported often as such a leader intending to launch a new conservative party to break through the suffocating political situation of Japan.

The LDP's most powerful king-maker and an ex-prime minister, Yasuhiro Nakasone, sees that Japan has been changing from "clay' to "sand." When the country is in dispersion currently as seen in the lack of support for established parties, the people want a hero with mighty leadership and philosophy.

Nakasone comments that Ishihara, if he worked for the people of Tokyo enthusiastically, could be called to dedicate himself to the country when it comes to the crunch.

On being asked whether he would set up his own party, Ishihara answers that it is "honorable but troublesome". But a report of a major daily sees that he is thinking to grab the position of prime minister by carefully preparing the timing in the capital Tokyo.

The next year from now to June 2004 when the term of this government terminates i.e. the next general election is held, must be an unforeseeable period for Japanese politics. It is said among the politicians: "An inch forward is all darkness."